JAN 8 | 9PM UPDATE - The timing looks to be on track for this storm, still starting early tomorrow (Tuesday) morning and ending late Tuesday night. Minor adjustments were made to the snowfall forecast. Latest models showed the highest snow totals being pushed further to the east, towards the lakeshore, so this update reflected that change. Lastly, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Florence, Forest, Langlade, Marathon, and Northern Marinette counties (see map below).
We are gearing up for our first winter storm of the year (and surprisingly, the season)! Yesterday, it looked like models were somewhat in disagreement, but they have all come together in agreement today. Here are my thoughts:
❄️ A robust winter system will begin to head our way today, but won't begin impacting us until Tuesday morning. Short-range weather models suggest the arrival of snow early Tuesday morning - one model is showing snow arriving around midnight tonight, and the other is showing snow arriving around 2AM. Those differences aside, you can expect snow to start overnight.
As we head towards dawn, I anticipate there being around 1"-2" (3" locally) of snow on the ground for the morning commute - manageable, but still use caution, watch for plows, and please slow down, especially in school zones.
Both models show some sort of lull in the morning. The HRRR is showing snow stopping around 6 AM and beginning again around 8 AM. The NAM 3K model is showing snow stopping around 7 AM and beginning again around 8 AM. This detail is not really of much importance.
Finally, models show the last of the snow heading out of the area late Tuesday night.
SNOW TOTALS: Areas east of a line from Crivitz, Pulaski, to Waupaca, you can expect somewhere between 6"-10" (purple). Areas to the west of that line can expect anywhere between 3"-6" (dark blue) and 1"-3" (light blue). 6"-10" is a pretty broad range - I'm hoping by tonight, I'll be able to let you know where I expect the higher end of the range to be.
⏰ Early Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
🚨 A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for the following counties until 3AM Wednesday: Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Menominee, Outagamie, Portage, Shawano, Southern Marinette County, Southern Oconto County, Waupaca, Waushara, and Winnebago counties. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Florence, Forest, Langlade, Marathon and Northern Marinette counties.
⚠️ From the National Weather Service: "Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes."
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