Update: July 23 4:10 PM
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Calumet, Manitowoc, Waushara and Winnebago counties until 11PM tonight. Damaging winds of 85+ MPH, hail 2"+ in diameter, and a tornado or two is all possible. Prepare NOW for the potential for severe weather.
If you're outside of this area, I don't much in terms of severe weather, if any. You can expect, however, heavy rain and lightning with any storms that pass through.
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Update: July 23 9:00 AM
The Enhanced (Level 3/5) risk has been shifted further to the south, now including mostly areas roughly south of a Green Bay to Stevens Point line. Further to the north, much of the area is under a Slight (Level 2/5) risk for severe weather. Remember, most of our severe weather takes place during a Slight risk, so be aware and know where your safe place is. Don't get caught up in the risk levels. Severe weather doesn't care about boundaries of the risk levels so severe weather can happen anywhere.
Storms are already developing in western Minnesota, in fact, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is already posted for areas just west of the Wisconsin-Minnesota border.
Damaging wind is the highest risk for today, but large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
HOW TO RECEIVE WARNINGS
DISCLAIMER
Yes, there's a possibility that this severe won't amount to anything bad. Instead of the hate comments to the National Weather Service, local media, or even me, be happy that property was not destroyed and people were not hurt.
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Original Post:
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Central Wisconsin under a Level 3/5 (Enhanced) severe risk for Saturday (7/23). Here's a breakdown of that severe threat:
DAILY FORECAST
Wisconsin and much of the Upper Midwest will be in a warm and humid airmass, which will make for an unstable atmosphere. High temperatures across the coverage area will be in the upper 80s/low 90s and dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. This is very humid for Wisconsin. Throughout the day, I anticipate partly to mostly sunny skies.
SEVERE BREAKDOWN
As stated before, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of our area under a Level 3/5 (Enhanced) risk, which stretches west into Western Wisconsin and into much of south-central Minnesota. Initially, isolated supercells are anticipated to develop in the western part of the risk area, and move east. As these cells move east, it will eventually fill in to form a QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System) or more commonly known to the general public as a squall line. This will pose mostly a damaging wind threat, but as with all severe weather, a few tornadoes and large hail cannot be ruled out.
Models have been hinting at a more southerly track of this line of storms, so that's certainly something to keep an eye on.
Should this line come through our area, the main threat will be damaging wind, but 1"+ hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Of course, frequent lightning and heavy rain is likely.
Forecast Written: Fri Jul 22 10:00 AM
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