12 PM UPDATE: The Storm Prediction Center has UPGRADED northwest Wisconsin to Level 3/5 (Enhanced) risk for severe weather tonight. Latest models show a large line of strong/severe storms moving through tonight. If this model is correct, it should be reaching the Rhinelander, Eagle River, Merrill area around 9PM or so and move east throughout the evening. This line will likely move quickly so once it moves into the area, if you're downstream from the storm, get ready.
⏰ 8PM - 2AM
⚠️ Damaging wind gusts up to 70+ MPH, large hail 1"-2" in diameter, possibly an isolated tornado.
‼️ Know where your safe place is, charge your devices, and have multiple ways to receive warnings. I will be doing a live stream of any watches/warnings and radar, as needed. This will be a great resource during severe weather.
Good morning! We have a lot to talk about this morning. A warm front will bring above-average temperatures today. Dew points will hang around 70º, which is tropical-like for us in Wisconsin. The combination of the heat and humidity will set up an unstable airmass around our area. The 'trigger' I've discussed before will be a cold front that will sweep through tonight.
TONIGHT: Tonight, we do have the potential for severe weather. There are two scenarios that models are depicting:
Scenario 1: Storms will develop across Minnesota and NW Wisconsin and sweep southeastward, towards us in Northeast Wisconsin. This will bring us a chance of damaging winds and large hail.
Scenario 2: Storms will develop across Minnesota and NW Wisconsin and stay to our north, tracking across mostly the Upper Peninsula. In this scenario, outside of the far north, a majority of us would stay clear from these storms.
Unfortunately, we won't know which scenario it will be until the storms are developing, but it's crucial to give you the information regardless.
SEVERE THREAT
The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas to the northeast of Green Bay and the Fox Valley under a Level 2/5 (Slight) risk for severe weather and the rest of the area under a Level 1/5 (Marginal) risk.
Initially, storms will likely be isolated, allowing for supercells to develop in NW Wisconsin, posing a tornado threat. However, once it reaches our area, I expect it will be in a bowing line, which poses a threat for 65+ MPH winds and quarter-size or larger hail. It's important to note that a tornado cannot be ruled out. The timeframe for this event is around 8PM-2AM, so please have a way to receive warnings during the overnight hours.
If you have outdoor activities planned (like those of you at EAA), make sure you know where a safe place to shelter is should there be a severe storm approaching.
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