UPDATE: Good morning! Our first round of snow/rain is heading out of the area (first picture). A line of showers is behind this first round that's moving NNE. This will be a continuing trend throughout the day today. You can expect scattered showers to the south and scattered snow showers (maybe a mix too) north. Any precipitation will be light.
Here's a breakdown of alerts: - Winter Storm Warning & Winter Weather Advisory for the Northwoods will expire at 10AM, if not earlier. - Much of the area is under a Winter Storm Watch, but we are still waiting to see where the NWS upgrades to a Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory. I will update that when they make that decision.
TONIGHT - SATURDAY:
Scattered showers will become more numerous around 7-8 PM which will be followed by heavier precipitation (the main system). Initially, there is a concern that we may see some strong/severe storms, but there's no possibility of a severe weather outbreak. If there's a strong or severe storm, I'd say we could see wind gusts around 60MPH and small hail - really nothing to worry about, but something worth mentioning. The SPC has placed the southern half of the area under a Marginal (Level 1) risk (see 2nd photo).
Overnight, this area of precipitation I previously talked about will turn to a mix and eventually to all snow. I've unfortunately had to shift the highest snow totals to the south. A large area of 8"-12" is certainly possible for much of the area. (see 3rd photo) Further south, the less north you will get. Be aware of potential icing as well. While it may be raining at times, road temperatures may still be under 32° in spots, which will lead to some icing on the roadways.
ORIGINAL POST:
ROUND 1: TONIGHT - FRIDAY MORNING
The leading edge of precipitation is quickly approaching this evening and will continue to do so throughout the overnight hours and into Friday morning. There is a Winter Storm Warning in effect for the far northern part of the area, while a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas just to the south.
For the Winter Storm Warning, expect 3"-6" of snow and some ice accumulation. For the Winter Weather Advisory, expect 1"-3" and some ice accumulation. Regardless, travel will become hazardous at times. These alerts will run from 7 PM Thursday and expire at 10 AM on Friday.
ROUND 2: Friday PM to Saturday PM
The next round will come Friday evening. Latest models are looking that scattered rain showers will begin to move in around 5 PM, but more widespread precipitation will quickly overspread the area by 8-9 PM. This precipitation will likely begin as rain (and possibly thunderstorms - continue reading for those details), but as it moves to the north, it will interact with colder air, thus switching to freezing rain or snow.
While the highest chance for severe weather is well to the south of us, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the far southern part of our area under a Level 1 (Marginal) risk for severe thunderstorms. There may be some stronger storms, but I don't see severe storms as the main threat with this system.
For this round, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for much of the area for the potential for snow, freezing rain and gusts up to 45 MPH.
SNOW TOTALS
By Saturday PM, I am expecting a widespread area of 8"-12" and 12"-18"+ across far NE Wisconsin.
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